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雅思閱讀經(jīng)濟(jì)類文章精選1
The magic of diasporas
Immigrant networks are a rare bright spark in the world economy. Rich countries should welcome them
THIS is not a good time to be foreign. Anti-immigrant parties are gaining ground in Europe. Britain has been fretting this week over lapses in its border controls. In America Barack Obama has failed to deliver the immigration reform he promised ， and Republican presidential candidates would rather electrify the border fence with Mexico than educate the children of illegal aliens. America educates foreign scientists in its universities and then expels them， a policy the mayor of New York calls "national suicide".
This illiberal turn in attitudes to migration is no surprise. It is the result of cyclical economic gloom combined with a secular rise in pressure on rich countries' borders. But governments now weighing up whether or not to try to slam the door should consider another factor： the growing economic importance of diasporas， and the contribution they can make to a country's economic growth.
Old networks， new communications
Diaspora networks—of Huguenots， Scots， Jews and many others—have always been a potent economic force， but the cheapness and ease of modern travel has made them larger and more numerous than ever before. There are now 215m first-generation migrants around the world： that's 3% of the world's population. If they were a nation， it would be a little larger than Brazil. There are more Chinese people living outside China than there are French people in France. Some 22m Indians are scattered all over the globe. Small concentrations of ethnic and linguistic groups have always been found in surprising places—Lebanese in west Africa， Japanese in Brazil and Welsh in Patagonia， for instance—but they have been joined by newer ones， such as west Africans in southern China.
These networks of kinship and language make it easier to do business across borders. They speed the flow of information： a Chinese trader in Indonesia who spots a gap in the market for cheap umbrellas will alert his cousin in Shenzhen who knows someone who runs an umbrella factory. Kinship ties foster trust， so they can seal the deal and get the umbrellas to Jakarta before the rainy season ends. Trust matters， especially in emerging markets where the rule of law is weak. So does a knowledge of the local culture. That is why so much foreign direct investment in China still passes through the Chinese diaspora. And modern communications make these networks an even more powerful tool of business.
Diasporas also help spread ideas. Many of the emerging world's brightest minds are educated at Western universities. An increasing number go home， taking with them both knowledge and contacts. Indian computer scientists in Bangalore bounce ideas constantly off their Indian friends in Silicon Valley. China's technology industry is dominated by "sea turtles" (Chinese who have lived abroad and returned).
Diasporas spread money， too. Migrants into rich countries not only send cash to their families; they also help companies in their host country operate in their home country. A Harvard Business School study shows that American companies that employ lots of ethnic Chinese people find it much easier to set up in China without a joint venture with a local firm.
Such arguments are unlikely to make much headway against hostility towards immigrants in rich countries. Fury against foreigners is usually based on two (mutually incompatible) notions： that because so many migrants claim welfare they are a drain on the public purse; and that because they are prepared to work harder for less pay they will depress the wages of those at the bottom of the pile.
The first is usually not true (in Britain， for instance， immigrants claim benefits less than indigenous people do)， and the second is hard to establish either way. Some studies do indeed suggest that competition from unskilled immigrants depresses the wages of unskilled locals. But others find this effect to be small or non-existent.
Nor is it possible to establish the impact of migration on overall growth. The sums are simply too difficult. Yet there are good reasons for believing that it is likely to be positive. Migrants tend to be hard-working and innovative. That spurs productivity and company formation. A recent study carried out by Duke University showed that， while immigrants make up an eighth of America's population， they founded a quarter of the country's technology and engineering firms. And， by linking the West with emerging markets， diasporas help rich countries to plug into fast-growing economies.
Rich countries are thus likely to benefit from looser immigration policy; and fears that poor countries will suffer as a result of a "brain drain" are overblown. The prospect of working abroad spurs more people to acquire valuable skills， and not all subsequently emigrate. Skilled migrants send money home， and they often return to set up new businesses. One study found that unless they lose more than 20% of their university graduates， the brain drain makes poor countries richer.
Indian takeaways
Government as well as business gains from the spread of ideas through diasporas. Foreign-educated Indians， including the prime minister， Manmohan Singh (Oxford and Cambridge) and his sidekick Montek Ahluwalia (Oxford)， played a big role in bringing economic reform to India in the early 1990s. Some 500，000 Chinese people have studied abroad and returned， mostly in the past decade; they dominate the think-tanks that advise the government， and are moving up the ranks of the Communist Party. Cheng Li of the Brookings Institution， an American think-tank， predicts that they will be 15-17% of its Central Committee next year， up from 6% in 2002. Few sea turtles call openly for democracy. But they have seen how it works in practice， and they know that many countries that practise it are richer， cleaner and more stable than China.
As for the old world， its desire to close its borders is understandable but dangerous. Migration brings youth to ageing countries， and allows ideas to circulate in millions of mobile minds. That is good both for those who arrive with suitcases and dreams and for those who should welcome them.
雅思閱讀經(jīng)濟(jì)類文章精選2
Euro zone's unexploded
THE euro-zone crisis is not solved and is not likely to be solved soon, but the greatest immediate danger has been avoided. Two points worth stressing.
1) The euro-zone economy has some "unexploded ordinance" in it that is likely to explode eventually, but no one really knows whether it is a grenade, a 1000kg bomb, or a nuclear device; what leaders did last week and are doing this week is making sure it is NOT a nuclear device.
Europe still faces a number of vortices that could pull down the euro zone if allowed to get going: the "Greek" austerity-budget deficit vortex, and the "Lehman vortex" that sucked Dexia below water, as per the diagram below.
However, euro-zone leaders seen to have finally rendered the worst vortex inoperable, namely the "Irish" vortex where by shocks pull down banks, banks pull down governments and then the vortex spreads to the next government in line. In this case it would have been Greek restructuring pulling down banks that forced nationalisation that forced downgrades that drove up yields which then made the governments insolvent. As this might rapidly have reached Italy and Spain, the "nuclear" outcome was truly scary—the sort of thing that had Charles Wyplosz talking about 1930s-like outcomes.
The first revelation is that they have now finally 三立在線 that backstopping the banks is absolutely essential, mostly via recapitalisation. I’d guess that they’ll flub the job at the EU and G20 summits but that doesn’t really matter. They are now at "battle stations" when it comes to the banks, so we won’t have a Lehman-like moment that then brings down the world’s third largest debtor (Italy). Either national governments, or the EFSF will make sure the banks remain intact regardless.
The second revelation is that regardless of what they do to scale up the EFSF, it won’t be big enough to backstop sovereigns in a way that will prevent contagion. However, this doesn’t matter as the ECB will be forced to step in—just as it did in August and for exactly the same reason. Contagion spreading to Italy, Spain, Belgium, Malta, France etc would spell a very rapid and very ugly end to the euro zone. Besides, they have the ready excuse that they employed in August about orderly markets and monetary policy. But not all is for the best in this best of all possible worlds. The law of unintended consequences will be fully enforced.
雅思閱讀經(jīng)濟(jì)類文章精選3
雅思閱讀：Whose lost decade?
Japan's economy works better than pessimists think—at least for the elderly.
THE Japanese say they suffer from an economic disease called "structural pessimism". Overseas too， there is a tendency to see Japan as a harbinger of all that is doomed in the economies of the euro zone and America—even though figures released on November 14th show its economy grew by an annualised 6% in the third quarter， rebounding quickly from the March tsunami and nuclear disaster.
Look dispassionately at Japan's economic performance over the past ten years， though， and "the second lost decade"， if not the first， is a misnomer. Much of what tarnishes Japan's image is the result of demography—more than half its population is over 45—as well as its poor policy in dealing with it. Even so， most Japanese have grown richer over the decade.
In aggregate， Japan's economy grew at half the pace of America's between 2001 and 2010. Yet if judged by growth in GDP per person over the same period， then Japan has outperformed America and the euro zone (see chart 1). In part this is because its population has shrunk whereas America's population has increased.
Though growth in labour productivity fell slightly short of America's from 2000 to 2008， total factor productivity， a measure of how a country uses capital and labour， grew faster， according to the Tokyo-based Asian Productivity Organisation. Japan's unemployment rate is higher than in 2000， yet it remains about half the level of America and Europe (see chart 2).
Besides supposed stagnation， the two other curses of the Japanese economy are debt and deflation. Yet these also partly reflect demography and can be overstated. People often think of Japan as an indebted country. In fact， it is the world's biggest creditor nation， boasting ￥253 trillion (.3 trillion) in net foreign assets.
To be sure， its government is a large debtor; its net debt as a share of GDP is one of the highest in the OECD. However， the public debt has been accrued not primarily through wasteful spending or "bridges to nowhere"， but because of ageing， says the IMF. Social-security expenditure doubled as a share of GDP between 1990 and 2010 to pay rising pensions and health-care costs. Over the same period tax revenues have shrunk.
Falling tax revenues are a problem. The flip side， though， is that Japan has the lowest tax take of any country in the OECD， at just 17% of GDP. That gives it plenty of room to manoeuvre. Takatoshi Ito， an economist at the University of Tokyo， says increasing the consumption tax by 20 percentage points from its current 5%—putting it at the level of a high-tax European country—would raise ￥50 trillion and immediately wipe out Japan's fiscal deficit.
That sounds draconian. But here again， demography plays a role. Officials say the elderly resist higher taxes or benefit cuts， and the young， who are in a minority， do not have the political power to push for what is in their long-term interest. David Weinstein， professor of Japanese economy at Columbia University in New York， says the elderly would rather give money to their children than pay it in taxes. Ultimately that may mean that benefits may shrink in the future. "If you want benefits to grow in line with income， as they are now， you need a massive increase in taxes of about 10% of GDP，" he says.
Demography helps explain Japan's stubborn deflation， too， he says. After all， falling prices give savers—most of whom are elderly—positive real yields even when nominal interest rates are close to zero. Up until now， holding government bonds has been a good bet. Domestic savers remain willing to roll them over， which enables the government to fund its deficits. Yet this comes at a cost to the rest of the economy.
In short， Japan's economy works better for those middle-aged and older than it does for the young. But it is not yet in crisis， and economists say there is plenty it could do to raise its potential growth rate， as well as to lower its debt burden.
Last weekend Yoshihiko Noda， the prime minister， took a brave shot at promoting reform when he said Japan planned to start consultations towards joining the Trans-Pacific Partnership. This is an American-backed free-trade zone that could lead to a lowering of tariffs on a huge swath of goods and services. Predictably it is elderly farmers， doctors and small businessmen who are most against it.
Reforms to other areas， such as the tax and benefit system， might be easier if the government could tell the Japanese a different story： not that their economy is mired in stagnation， but that its performance reflects the ups and downs of an ageing society， and that the old as well as the young need to make sacrifices.
The trouble is that the downbeat narrative is deeply ingrained. The current crop of leading Japanese politicians， bureaucrats and businessmen are themselves well past middle age. Many think they have sacrificed enough since the glory days of the 1980s， when Japan's economy seemed unstoppable. Mr Weinstein says they suffer from "diminished-giant syndrome"， nervously watching the economic rise of China. If they compared themselves instead with America and Europe， they might feel heartened enough to make some of the tough choices needed.
Immigrant networks are a rare bright spark in the world economy. Rich countries should welcome them
THIS is not a good time to be foreign. Anti-immigrant parties are gaining ground in Europe. Britain has been fretting this week over lapses in its border controls. In America Barack Obama has failed to deliver the immigration reform he promised ， and Republican presidential candidates would rather electrify the border fence with Mexico than educate the children of illegal aliens. America educates foreign scientists in its universities and then expels them， a policy the mayor of New York calls "national suicide".
This illiberal turn in attitudes to migration is no surprise. It is the result of cyclical economic gloom combined with a secular rise in pressure on rich countries' borders. But governments now weighing up whether or not to try to slam the door should consider another factor： the growing economic importance of diasporas， and the contribution they can make to a country's economic growth.
Old networks， new communications
Diaspora networks—of Huguenots， Scots， Jews and many others—have always been a potent economic force， but the cheapness and ease of modern travel has made them larger and more numerous than ever before. There are now 215m first-generation migrants around the world： that's 3% of the world's population. If they were a nation， it would be a little larger than Brazil. There are more Chinese people living outside China than there are French people in France. Some 22m Indians are scattered all over the globe. Small concentrations of ethnic and linguistic groups have always been found in surprising places—Lebanese in west Africa， Japanese in Brazil and Welsh in Patagonia， for instance—but they have been joined by newer ones， such as west Africans in southern China.
These networks of kinship and language make it easier to do business across borders. They speed the flow of information： a Chinese trader in Indonesia who spots a gap in the market for cheap umbrellas will alert his cousin in Shenzhen who knows someone who runs an umbrella factory. Kinship ties foster trust， so they can seal the deal and get the umbrellas to Jakarta before the rainy season ends. Trust matters， especially in emerging markets where the rule of law is weak. So does a knowledge of the local culture. That is why so much foreign direct investment in China still passes through the Chinese diaspora. And modern communications make these networks an even more powerful tool of business.
Diasporas also help spread ideas. Many of the emerging world's brightest minds are educated at Western universities. An increasing number go home， taking with them both knowledge and contacts. Indian computer scientists in Bangalore bounce ideas constantly off their Indian friends in Silicon Valley. China's technology industry is dominated by "sea turtles" (Chinese who have lived abroad and returned).
Diasporas spread money， too. Migrants into rich countries not only send cash to their families; they also help companies in their host country operate in their home country. A Harvard Business School study shows that American companies that employ lots of ethnic Chinese people find it much easier to set up in China without a joint venture with a local firm.
Such arguments are unlikely to make much headway against hostility towards immigrants in rich countries. Fury against foreigners is usually based on two (mutually incompatible) notions： that because so many migrants claim welfare they are a drain on the public purse; and that because they are prepared to work harder for less pay they will depress the wages of those at the bottom of the pile.
The first is usually not true (in Britain， for instance， immigrants claim benefits less than indigenous people do)， and the second is hard to establish either way. Some studies do indeed suggest that competition from unskilled immigrants depresses the wages of unskilled locals. But others find this effect to be small or non-existent.
Nor is it possible to establish the impact of migration on overall growth. The sums are simply too difficult. Yet there are good reasons for believing that it is likely to be positive. Migrants tend to be hard-working and innovative. That spurs productivity and company formation. A recent study carried out by Duke University showed that， while immigrants make up an eighth of America's population， they founded a quarter of the country's technology and engineering firms. And， by linking the West with emerging markets， diasporas help rich countries to plug into fast-growing economies.
Rich countries are thus likely to benefit from looser immigration policy; and fears that poor countries will suffer as a result of a "brain drain" are overblown. The prospect of working abroad spurs more people to acquire valuable skills， and not all subsequently emigrate. Skilled migrants send money home， and they often return to set up new businesses. One study found that unless they lose more than 20% of their university graduates， the brain drain makes poor countries richer.
Indian takeaways
Government as well as business gains from the spread of ideas through diasporas. Foreign-educated Indians， including the prime minister， Manmohan Singh (Oxford and Cambridge) and his sidekick Montek Ahluwalia (Oxford)， played a big role in bringing economic reform to India in the early 1990s. Some 500，000 Chinese people have studied abroad and returned， mostly in the past decade; they dominate the think-tanks that advise the government， and are moving up the ranks of the Communist Party. Cheng Li of the Brookings Institution， an American think-tank， predicts that they will be 15-17% of its Central Committee next year， up from 6% in 2002. Few sea turtles call openly for democracy. But they have seen how it works in practice， and they know that many countries that practise it are richer， cleaner and more stable than China.
As for the old world， its desire to close its borders is understandable but dangerous. Migration brings youth to ageing countries， and allows ideas to circulate in millions of mobile minds. That is good both for those who arrive with suitcases and dreams and for those who should welcome them.
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